Australian Idol’s random voting system is leading to the demise of hot favourites – as seen by Ricki-Lee’s departure from the high-rating program.
According to Tristan Barnett, a PhD student at Swinburne University’s media statistics unit, Ricki-Lee could have stayed in the competition if there was a cumulative voting system where votes from previous weeks were totalled.
Barnett said this voting system would have almost certainly ensured Ricki-Lee’s place in the competition up until at least the top four contestants, given the amount of votes received, and the fact she had never been in the bottom three prior to being eliminated.
“Put simply, the public couldn’t be bothered voting every week. In last year’s Idol series Guy Sebastian was in the bottom three for one week and could have very easily been eliminated from the competition at that time,” Barnett said.
Under the current voting system, the votes are tabulated only on the present week and don’t take into account how well the contestants might have performed in prior weeks.
Barnett suggests an even better method would be to use exponential smoothing – a forecasting technique used in Swinburne’s sports predictions that takes into account past results but ‘weights’ performance in more recent weeks more heavily, lessening the chance of consistently good performers being kicked out.
For instance, a contestant such as Ricki-Lee could be cruising along for the first five weeks and then be eliminated the following week as a result of the public tired of voting for an apparent hot favourite on a week-to-week basis, instead preferring to vote for the underdog.
While the current voting system and its unpredictability adds to the appeal of the program, Barnett said an improved system would lead to a fairer result.
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I know its old but its damn interesting hey! She had enough votes tallied at week seven to get her up until it was down to four contestants (according to their research)

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